Predictions 2021

Predictions for 2021 Humans are notoriously poor at assigning probabilities to events, even those that are highly relevant to their daily lives. This year I’m making a deliberate attempt to calibrate my prediction abilities by correlating predictions with reality. The judgments of truth of these outcomes will be made on December 31, 2021, although some of the outcomes will have been decided substantially in advance of that. Coronavirus An effective vaccine will be widely available in Canada: 70%.

13 Random thoughts about Canada after living here for a year.

On January 1, 2016 we packed up all our earthly goods and headed south to Canada. (Yes, it’s true. When you live in Minnesota, it’s possible to move south to Canada. Look at the map!) Having lived here for a little over a year, here are some thoughts about living here, in no particular order: “Sorry” is more of a greeting than just an apology.