Personal

Predictions for 2021

Humans are notoriously poor at assigning probabilities to events, even those that are highly relevant to their daily lives. This year I’m making a deliberate attempt to calibrate my prediction abilities by correlating predictions with reality. The judgments of truth of these outcomes will be made on December 31, 2021, although some of the outcomes will have been decided substantially in advance of that.

Coronavirus

1. An effective vaccine will be widely available in Canada: 70%.
2. I will have received a coronavirus vaccine: 65%
3. I will have personally contracted coronavirus infection: 20%
4. Someone in my household will have contracted coronavirus: 20%
5. Schools in London-Middlesex will close due to coronavirus outbreak: 30%
6. U.S. deaths from COVID-19 > 300,000: 60%
7. YAPCA will resume in-person activities before end of term because of lifting coronavirus restrictions: 15%
8. Violin lessons will resume in-person before the end of term because of lifting coronavirus restrictions: 20%
9. Daily case counts exceed 30 on any day in 2021 for London-Middlesex: 50%.

Politics

1. Joe Biden will be elected to the U.S. Presidency: 80%
2. Donald Trump will officially concede the election if he is defeated: 10%
3. The U.S. Senate will change to Democratic control: 60%
4. The U.S. House of Representatives will remain in Democratic control: 99%
5. Joe Biden will die or become impaired in office: 10%
6. Florida’s electoral votes go to Biden: 45%
7. Michigan’s electoral votes go to Biden: 50%
8. Pennsylvania’s electoral votes go to Biden: 60%
9. Ohio’s electoral votes go to Biden: 20%
10. Wisonsin’s electoral votes go to Biden: 40%
11. Arizona’s electoral votes go to Biden: 55%
12. Lindsey Graham is defeated: 30%
13. Mitch McConnell is defeated: 10%
14. Susan Collins is defeated: 45%
15. Results of election are known by November 5, 2020: 60%
16. Donald Trump attends the Inauguration ceremonies: 20%
17. Boris Johnson is still UK PM: 60%
18. Justin Trudeau is still Canadian PM: 70%
19. Queen Elizabeth dies: 20%
20. Prince Philip dies: 30%
21. Roe v. Wade is overturned: 10%
22. Coney-Barrett is confirmed: 100%

Family

1. [redacted]: 70%
2. [redacted]: 50%
3. [redacted]: 60%
4. [redacted]: 80%
5. [redacted]: 30%
6. [redacted]: 50%
7. We own a third dog: 25%
8. [redacted]: 20%
9. [redacted]: 20%
10. Any member of our immediate family household travels on an airliner: 40%
11. Audra has a new car: 25%
12. [redacted]: 20%
13. Interlochen holds in-person summer camp: 40%

Russian

1. I complete Anki reviews on 100% of days: 70%
2. I complete Anki reviews on at least 80% of days: 80%
3. My tutor-rated speaking ability is improved by at least 25% on a 0-10 scale: 70%
4. I’ve read at least 6 short stories in Russian: 25%
5. I do prosody practice on at least 50% of days: 10%

Writing

1. I write more than 5 articles on Suzuki Experience: 40%
2. I write more than 12 articles on Ojisanseiuichi.com: 60%

Technology/Economy

1. I purchase a new laptop: 15%
2. I purchase a new cell phone: 10%
3. I set up a VPN for privacy purposes: 65%
4. I cancel my Facebook account: 20%
5. I check Facebook less than twice a day on 80% of days: 90%
6. I resume using Instagram: 20%
7. I’m using a text editor other than Sublime or Atom: 50%
8. I unblock Twitter: 10%
9. DJIA closes above 30,000: 60% 10 I update to new major macOS version: 60%

Personal

1. I workout on at least 80% of days: 20%
2. I workout on at least 50% of days: 40%
3. I workout on at least 25% of days: 50%
4. I take an SSRI or related medication: 30%
5. [redacted]: 60%
6. I sit zazen on at least 80% of days: 10%
7. I sit zazen on at least 50% of days: 30%
8. I sit zazen on at least 25% of days: 40%
9. I write 2021 goals: 95%
10. I complete all 2021 goals: 10%
11. I complete more than 50% of 2021 goals: 50%
12. We begin kitchen renovation: 15%
13. [redacted]: 60%
14. I read more than 10 books: 20%
15. I read more than 5 books: 90%
16. I read more than 4 novels: 15%
17. I travel anywhere on an airliner: 10%
18. I install radio transceiver in back lock: 60%
19. I install USB charger outlet behind office cabinet: 25%
20. I can play Rachmaninoff partita transcription from memory: 30%

On January 1, 2016 we packed up all our earthly goods and headed south to Canada. (Yes, it’s true. When you live in Minnesota, it’s possible to move south to Canada. Look at the map!) Having lived here for a little over a year, here are some thoughts about living here, in no particular order:

1. “Sorry” is more of a greeting than just an apology.
2. Canadians really are polite; but put them behind the wheel of a car and all bets are off.
3. Universal healthcare works. Americans love to go on and on about socialized medicine; but I’m here to tell you: it works.
4. Bumper stickers are rare here.
5. People don’t really talk politics. Well, they talk about U.S. politics.
6. Left turn arrows on traffic lights are rare. It makes for interesting moments when the light changes.
7. The electric utility is called “hydro”, which given the Greek origin of the word makes little sense until you realize that it stands for “hydroelectric.”
8. Youth music is well-supported - both through private and public funding.
9. State-church separation is fuzzier. For example, the Catholic school system is tax-payer funded. But only the Catholic schools. It has something to do with the Canadian Charter (a.k.a Constitution.) It was apparently some sort of historical compromise in the 1800’s.
10. Don’t order iced tea in Canada. It’s way too sweet.
11. As a practical matter, you can’t be elected Prime Minister unless you speak both English and French fluently. This is a really good thing.^[How many languages does Donald Trump speak fluently, for example?]
12. Speaking of politics, campaigns are time-limited to 6 weeks before an election. How cool is that?
13. Poutine sounds horrible, but it’s actually pretty good.